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General Discussion => Political Threads => Topic started by: AgapeFire on November 03, 2020, 10:14:11 pm

Title: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: AgapeFire on November 03, 2020, 10:14:11 pm
Looks like it'll go down to the wire with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as the big swing plays.

The mail-in ballots (to be counted later) are expected to swing Biden in those states, I believe, with PA being a close one.  Am I wrong?

-AF

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Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: bdsimon on November 04, 2020, 05:21:33 am
Looks to me like the leads are insurmountable for Trump in NC, GA, and PA.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Mammal on November 04, 2020, 07:02:40 am
Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, N Carolina, Wisconsin are all up for grabs still...
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: AgapeFire on November 04, 2020, 09:44:44 am
Looks to me like the leads are insurmountable for Trump in NC, GA, and PA.
Possibly.

Even so, Biden still has a path with Wisconsin and Michigan, where he is leading.  With mostly mail-in ballots remaining as the only votes left to count in most states, the theory is that this heavily favors Biden, as his constituents were more likely to use them.

I think Biden wins a close electoral college victory, but you can never count Trump entirely out.  :)

-AF

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formerly:  wlcgeek; keegclw; and GodLovesU - Hopefully, fourth time's a charm when it comes to remembering login info.!
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: GRWelsh on November 04, 2020, 11:00:51 am
According to the information from the Associated Press, if Biden and Trump both win in the states where they are currently leading, Biden will get exactly 270 electoral votes.  It is possible, but I think unlikely, for the mail-in ballots to flip these states for Trump. 

Unfortunately, Trump is already indicating that he will not concede and he's going to keep accusing Democrats of stealing the election through voter fraud, even though there is no evidence that this is true.  Mail-in ballots are completely legal and the Trumps themselves have even used mail-in or absentee ballots in the past and in this very election.  So, he's relying on the system to work correctly for himself, but only casting doubt on the system as a whole in order to challenge the results of the election if he loses.

That is hypocritical and corrupt.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Harvey on November 04, 2020, 12:28:13 pm
How about this (https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2020/11/04/the-update-in-michigan-that-looks-awfully-suspicious-n2579437) evidence?
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: GRWelsh on November 04, 2020, 01:55:51 pm
If something looks suspicious, it should certainly be investigated.  But Trump is accusing Democrats of voter fraud before any investigation.

Come on, Harvey...

https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/11/fact-check-biden-did-not-go-up-138k-votes-in-michigan-with-no-change-to-trump.html?fbclid=IwAR3HgH_vsRFkO_8m4XFljpj2HtmFhERiKaFNCOF3ekYfGQ1qfyB2RGMyt7w (https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/11/fact-check-biden-did-not-go-up-138k-votes-in-michigan-with-no-change-to-trump.html?fbclid=IwAR3HgH_vsRFkO_8m4XFljpj2HtmFhERiKaFNCOF3ekYfGQ1qfyB2RGMyt7w)
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Harvey on November 04, 2020, 05:35:03 pm
Come on, Harvey...

https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/11/fact-check-biden-did-not-go-up-138k-votes-in-michigan-with-no-change-to-trump.html?fbclid=IwAR3HgH_vsRFkO_8m4XFljpj2HtmFhERiKaFNCOF3ekYfGQ1qfyB2RGMyt7w (https://leadstories.com/hoax-alert/2020/11/fact-check-biden-did-not-go-up-138k-votes-in-michigan-with-no-change-to-trump.html?fbclid=IwAR3HgH_vsRFkO_8m4XFljpj2HtmFhERiKaFNCOF3ekYfGQ1qfyB2RGMyt7w)

Okay. Just goes to show not to believe everything I read. You sure they weren't caught in the act? Lol.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: GRWelsh on November 05, 2020, 06:28:22 am
Okay. Just goes to show not to believe everything I read. You sure they weren't caught in the act? Lol.

It's possible, but unlikely.  A fraudulent update would have included at least some Trump votes to make it appear legitimate.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Harvey on November 05, 2020, 08:34:26 am
It's possible, but unlikely.  A fraudulent update would have included at least some Trump votes to make it appear legitimate.

Hopefully I'll have time to look deeper into this issue. At second glance it looks like right wing propaganda. Got to be careful of these sources (as well as from the left wing) because they tend to cover up a lot of evidence and information. It's a completely different world than philosophical and scientific sources which usually don't make the same errors as the political world. I was very frustrated with the Shroud sources too. Much of it was good but some of it was crap. I'm not use to bad sources I must admit.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: bdsimon on November 05, 2020, 11:13:46 am
The only floating rumor I'm aware of that has some truth is the percentage of registered voters in Wisconsin that voted. That is straight math and around 89% which is very high.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: AgapeFire on November 05, 2020, 03:50:54 pm
The only floating rumor I'm aware of that has some truth is the percentage of registered voters in Wisconsin that voted. That is straight math and around 89% which is very high.
Do you have a news link (from respectable source)?

I've heard something along those lines as well from my mom (but keep in mind, she thinks most criticisms of Donald Trump are fake news).  I think she was trying to tell me something like more ballots were cast in Wisconsin than there were registered voters or something like that. 

The genuinely bad Biden critiques I've seen typically have to do with mail-in ballots.  People keep pointing out that Biden's surged in many states (minus Arizona) with late vote counts and have called that suspicious.  But, that has been because Democrats (who don't want to get COVID and believe in science more) have more likely used mail-in ballots, which are counted last in most states.  The "surges" are legitimate.  It's not as if they were submitted late either.  They're simply counted "late," but all were submitted on time. 

Arizona has been the exception, where mail-in ballots are counted first - hence, you have the opposite effect of a late Trump surge. 

It's hypocritical and funny MAGA enthusiasts are saying, "Stop Counting Votes!" in Biden late-surge states, while chanting "Count the Votes!" in Trump late-surge states.  LOL! 

-AF

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formerly:  wlcgeek; keegclw; and GodLovesU - Hopefully, fourth time's a charm when it comes to remembering login info.!
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Spero on November 05, 2020, 07:28:23 pm
Trump should just concede once these numbers come in...he’s lost. I’m not seeing good evidence of fraud or any such thing, and I don’t believe his campaign has the “goods” either. If he thinks he’s taking this to SCOTUS hoping they reverse the election with him being 4,000,000+ votes down in the PV, he really is out of his mind.

That said, win or lose, the Republicans had a great night and have put themselves in a really good position for 2022.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Mammal on November 06, 2020, 09:21:56 am
Ol' Sleepy Joe has set a new record by attracting the most votes ever. No wonder Trump tweeted that they should stop the count. LOL. That must be very hard for him to swallow.. Will he concede..??
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Harvey on November 06, 2020, 10:52:46 am
He should definitely concede once the count is complete and the judicial branch has time to review and rule on any evidence of fraud that would have effected these results.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: bdsimon on November 06, 2020, 12:31:42 pm
The only floating rumor I'm aware of that has some truth is the percentage of registered voters in Wisconsin that voted. That is straight math and around 89% which is very high.
Do you have a news link (from respectable source)?

I've heard something along those lines as well from my mom (but keep in mind, she thinks most criticisms of Donald Trump are fake news).  I think she was trying to tell me something like more ballots were cast in Wisconsin than there were registered voters or something like that. 

The genuinely bad Biden critiques I've seen typically have to do with mail-in ballots.  People keep pointing out that Biden's surged in many states (minus Arizona) with late vote counts and have called that suspicious.  But, that has been because Democrats (who don't want to get COVID and believe in science more) have more likely used mail-in ballots, which are counted last in most states.  The "surges" are legitimate.  It's not as if they were submitted late either.  They're simply counted "late," but all were submitted on time. 

Arizona has been the exception, where mail-in ballots are counted first - hence, you have the opposite effect of a late Trump surge. 

It's hypocritical and funny MAGA enthusiasts are saying, "Stop Counting Votes!" in Biden late-surge states, while chanting "Count the Votes!" in Trump late-surge states.  LOL! 

-AF

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formerly:  wlcgeek; keegclw; and GodLovesU - Hopefully, fourth time's a charm when it comes to remembering login info.!
You can just Google registered voters and compare that to the actual votes. It is a very high number, but I think it’s great if that many voters participated. I wish all states had that kind of turnout.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: AgapeFire on November 07, 2020, 06:14:34 am
You can just Google registered voters and compare that to the actual votes. It is a very high number, but I think it’s great if that many voters participated. I wish all states had that kind of turnout.
I have heard (totally unsubstantiated) rumors of a Trump 2024 bid....we may see massive turnout again in a few years.  ;) 

That said, win or lose, the Republicans had a great night and have put themselves in a really good position for 2022.
Yeah, they had most of their Senate seats up for reelection this year and won the majority again.  That means they'll have less seats up in 2022, making it harder to flip. 

And, in the House, they gained a few seats from moderate Democrats. 

Depending on the Georgia run-off situation and whether Republicans can maintain control of the Senate for sure, we could have four years of gridlock under Biden/Harris (I'm inking them in as winners).  A split Congress with a Senate that is less vulnerable in 2022 could mean Mitch McConnell sitting back and squashing anything and everything the Dems. want.  LOL

-AF

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formerly:  wlcgeek; keegclw; and GodLovesU - Hopefully, fourth time's a charm when it comes to remembering login info.!
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Mammal on November 07, 2020, 07:15:25 am
^ Unless Georgia goes to the Dems in January.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Mammal on November 07, 2020, 12:07:05 pm
Done & dusted. Pennsylvania called with more than 1 % margin.

Why can't Trump go back to the White House in Feb? Because it is for Biden..
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Spero on November 07, 2020, 02:32:57 pm
Well, it’s a bitter-sweet moment for me. I’m happy to see this buffoon  humbled ( if that’s even possible ), but I’ll say the Dems have lost me as an independent who leans towards them. If they don’t screw their collective head on right and tackle the intersectional/woke wing of their party head on, they’ll be weeping in the sheets come 2022..and if they don’t learn then, they’ll be near suicidal in 2024 because they’ll lose it all. I’m a little doubtful that they’ve learned anything over GOP house pickups and the senate. You’ve got the squad mounting fights, Pelosi justifying the losses and Biden mentioning “systemic racism” and “mandate” all in one speech, when the he ONLY mandate he’s been given is to not be Trump. Scores of independents like me didn’t vote for Trump, but went GOP all the way down the ticket..and they better understand why.

I’ve got a feeling social media and the press are sensing incredible justification right now with how they’ve been behaving. I know they won’t change, but will probably get worse - same goes for Hollywood celebs, university professors and the woke. If flinging poo at the voters continues, we’ll all see these divisions grow, and grow fast. From there..God help us.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Spero on November 07, 2020, 02:42:04 pm
Quote
...We could have four years of gridlock under Biden/Harris..
Like Scalia said: “I know gridlock can be frustrating, but learn to embrace it.” 😊

It’s what the founders intended..and for good reason.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: bdsimon on November 07, 2020, 02:49:20 pm
^ Unless Georgia goes to the Dems in January.
That’s a tough call. Georgia is a purple state now but there was a whole lot of anti Trump vote and Perdue would have already clinched in 48 states. Not here though.

It’s not a sure thing either way.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: AgapeFire on November 07, 2020, 08:44:09 pm
Trump. Scores of independents like me didn’t vote for Trump, but went GOP all the way down the ticket..and they better understand why.
I've seen some people suggest that many Republicans this year voted Biden on the Presidential ticket, because they were heavily opposed to Trump (the person - not necessarily his policies), while voting Republican on their Senatorial/House and down ballot tickets hoping for a split Congress so as to get nothing done and serve as a check against Biden. 

I believe it.  There are many never Trumper Republicans (my uncle is one), perhaps most notably galvanized by The Lincoln Project movement, that want him out, but don't want Democratic policies either.  So their strategy was to vote Biden in at the top of the ticket and tie him up/keep him in check with a split Congress.


-AF

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formerly:  wlcgeek; keegclw; and GodLovesU - Hopefully, fourth time's a charm when it comes to remembering login info.!

Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Spero on November 08, 2020, 01:32:49 am
Trump. Scores of independents like me didn’t vote for Trump, but went GOP all the way down the ticket..and they better understand why.
I've seen some people suggest that many Republicans this year voted Biden on the Presidential ticket, because they were heavily opposed to Trump (the person - not necessarily his policies), while voting Republican on their Senatorial/House and down ballot tickets hoping for a split Congress so as to get nothing done and serve as a check against Biden. 

I believe it.  There are many never Trumper Republicans (my uncle is one), perhaps most notably galvanized by The Lincoln Project movement, that want him out, but don't want Democratic policies either.  So their strategy was to vote Biden in at the top of the ticket and tie him up/keep him in check with a split Congress.


-AF

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formerly:  wlcgeek; keegclw; and GodLovesU - Hopefully, fourth time's a charm when it comes to remembering login info.!

Oh yeah, I’m sure there were many a Republican   that voted for Biden, did a write in or  left it blank while painting the rest of the ticket red. For a lot of people, Biden was simply a non-Trump..and that’s it.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Harvey on November 08, 2020, 10:24:53 am
There are many never Trumper Republicans (my uncle is one), perhaps most notably galvanized by The Lincoln Project movement, that want him out, but don't want Democratic policies either.  So their strategy was to vote Biden in at the top of the ticket and tie him up/keep him in check with a split Congress.

Well, it barely accomplished that since the Senate might still go Democrat and the House is still Democrat (although more Republicans).

The scary scenario is this election brought out many Trump voters but maybe not so many when Trump is no longer on the ballot. However, in case of the Dems they found a way to counter voter enthusiasm of the right: absentee ballots. They have their people going door to door where they register and collect their ballots at home. We'll see high voter turnout from the Dems regardless of how desperate the conservates are.
Title: Re: Who Do You Think Wins? Trump/Biden
Post by: Fred on November 08, 2020, 05:16:06 pm
I have heard (totally unsubstantiated) rumors of a Trump 2024 bid
Mark Meadows substiatiated this rumor.

Perhaps this will further motivate New York to continue their investigation into Trump's taxes.  I'm not going to predict he's guilty (like many Republicans tended to do with Hillary), but neither would I be surprised if he turns out to be. 

Trump is also potentially vulnerable to being indicted on several counts of obstruction of justice, per Mueller's investigation.