Mammal

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Re: So, the first presidential debate was...
« Reply #30 on: October 26, 2020, 05:39:42 am »
We seem to be in agreement on mostly everything that you wrote. And I am sure nobody is assuming victory either. Interesting to note the impacts of the debates though. Some polls even factor in the kind of errors that we have seen in 2016 that still suggest Biden to be leading, but it aint over until that fat lady sings.
Fact, Fiction or Superstition?
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Harvey

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Re: So, the first presidential debate was...
« Reply #31 on: October 26, 2020, 02:15:29 pm »
Yeah...you know Trump’s campaign is gonna be cutting ads like crazy on oil. Are you in a “swing state”, Harvey?

Let's put it this way. There are no Trump or Biden ads running in my area and it has been months since any of them visited my state.

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Spero

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Re: So, the first presidential debate was...
« Reply #32 on: October 26, 2020, 03:53:38 pm »
Yeah, that answers my question 😄

I come from a state where voting for Trump could render you a fate similar to Vigo the Carpathian - poisoned, stabbed, shot, hung, steretched, diesemboweled, drawn and quartered...ouch.
Pride goes before destruction,
and a haughty spirit before a fall.

- Proverbs 16:18

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AgapeFire

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Re: So, the first presidential debate was...
« Reply #33 on: October 26, 2020, 03:55:32 pm »
We seem to be in agreement on mostly everything that you wrote. And I am sure nobody is assuming victory either. Interesting to note the impacts of the debates though. Some polls even factor in the kind of errors that we have seen in 2016 that still suggest Biden to be leading, but it aint over until that fat lady sings.
The one thing that would mess up my analysis is turn out. 

Early indications are that we'll have blow-out turn out this year, which would favor Biden.  Trump's base has consistently turned out for him, so he's not likely to squeeze out more votes that way.  Higher turnout favors Biden. 

We'll see. 

I do also think the combination of Trump's recent increasing nominal swing state deficits + higher  voter turnout favor Biden, despite the secret Trump vote factor (which I'd roughly net out to be 5% points if using the Cloud Research figures).  Trump looks to be in trouble and needs to reduce his deficits in swing states, which are mostly getting worse for him.  Ohio, I think, is the only one trending well for Trump.  There's still time for that, but it's getting close. . .

Unless he gets back to September swing state figures, which would make this a tight race, I think Trump could get landslided if these recent polls are anywhere near right.***

***Always a big if in the world of politics - lol. 

-AF

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formerly:  wlcgeek; keegclw; and GodLovesU - Hopefully, fourth time's a charm when it comes to remembering login info.!